A bad news poll for Sarah Palin that is actually good news for Sarah Palin.
In a survey of 109 Republican party leaders, political hacks and pundits, Palin finished 5th on the list of candidates most likely to win the Republican nomination in 2012. At face value, one would think this could mean bad news for Sarah Paln right? Not at all. Take a guess on who's the golden boy for the country club Republican crowd to win the 2012 nomination. If you all guessed Mitt Romney, you all thought correctly.
Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney 81 points (62%)
MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty 46 (9%)
Sen. John Thune 38 (12%)
MS Gov. Haley Barbour 28 (6%)
IN Gov. Mitch Daniels 25
Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin 25
This is one of the few times in polling where a person who came in last is actually better off then the person who came in first. I said months ago also that Tim Pawlenty is going to be called the "rising star" among the GOP insiders and the media, so look who came in second place in the poll, Governor Tim Pawlenty. Among the Republican candidates running for the nomination last year, all of the conservative candidates were second tier candidates, and the moderate candidates were in the first tier. Fred Thompson was the only exception. If I was Mitt Romney, I would be hating the fact the the GOP insiders showed support for me and think I would have a better shot at winning the Republican nomination. Many conservatives started leaving the GOP back in 2005 thanks to George Bush and non principal Republicans acting like liberals when it came to core issues like amnesty for illegals, out of control spending, the prescription drug entitlement etc. Many registered independent voters are conservatives. There is a reason why the Tea Party currently outranks both the Democrat and Republican Party in popularity. Both parties are seen as being totally out of touch with the American people. Mitt is seen by many true conservatives as being a "johnny come lately conservative convert". Mitt has spoken at several CPAC conventions, but CPAC doesn't represent core conservatives anymore anyways, however Mitt knows that he needs the backing of conservatives if he has any chance of winning not only the Republican nomination but the presidency as well. By the GOP party bosses having him as the run away leader to win the nomination, this victory could lead to his undoing and loss of support among grass root conservatives. With Sarah Palin, it is a much different story. With her coming in last place with only 25% support among GOP insiders, this is clearly a case of "less is more". Truth be told, Sarah really doesn't need the support among the Republican insider class. By her coming in last place, it actually helps Palin in positioning herself as a "true political outsider". Obama lied in claiming he was a political outsider, but he has proven himself to be a solid blue dog party loyalist and in favor within the Democrat Party. President Reagan went against the Republican establishment when he dared to challenge the incumbent Republican President Gerald Ford for the nomination in 1976. Reagan did things his way and in turn he got things the way he wanted them. One of the biggest drawbacks to the appeal of John McCain last year was that he was seen as being a favorite among the Republican establishment. You would have been hard pressed to find a GOP insider that didn't love John McCain. The only reason why conservatives voted for McCain wasn't because they liked him but because the vast majority didn't like Obama. He was nothing more then the anyone but Obama candidate. As I see it, Sarah has a three prong level of support. She has support among Republican conservatives, Independent conservatives and conservatives who are aligned with the Tea Party movement. The more both political establishments trash Sarah Palin, the more popular and powerful she becomes overall. Put another way, the candidates that the GOP bosses, pundits and insiders support and promote as the nominee for 2012 might as well be giving the political kiss of death. That kiss has already been given to Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney. I find it laughable that the Republican party bosses honestly believe that four politically unknown candidates have a better shot of winning the Republican nomination then Sarah Palin. Sarah has huge support in the primary states she would need to win the nomination. I refuse to believe that Republican strategists don't realize that huge fact as well. Palin already has a strong following in Iowa. I guess the GOP is wishfully thinking that a miracle dark horse candidate is going to come along and derail Sarah Palin. I just don't see that happening anytime soon. Don't need a poll to figure that one out.